Polls close in an hour and 15 minutes in most of Florida, and Democrats tend to vote a little later in the day, so they could eat a bit back into Republican margins. Biden probably needs to win independents by 7 points if the composition of the electorate continues to look like this. Nearly every poll says Biden leads with them, but the question is how much. Now, 24% of the electorate are no independent party affiliation/third party voters, so it's anyone's guess how they break. Not every Democrat is voting for Biden nor ever Republican for Trump, so we're using these raw ballot numbers as a sign of intensity. Biden wants to keep that margin at 2 or below. Republicans then stormed the polls today and led Democrats by about 184,000 ballots cast, or 1.7 points. They began the day in a hole to Democrats in total ballots cast, with the Dems ahead by 115,000 early and absentee ballots cast, a margin of 1.3 percentage points. update, Republicans have been dominating the day in turnout, as expected. We're watching turnout and we can do it almost in real-time. Senator Raphael Warnock defeated his challenger, Herschel Walker, a former football star and Trump-backed Republican, in the Georgia runoff.

I'm watching three things: Florida, Florida, Florida. To win like this, Biden would need a good share of independents (as much as a 7-point margin) or more GOP voters for him than Dem voters for Trump. So it could be higher or lower than R+1.8. We don’t know the final composition of the electorate. It was R+0.6 in 2016 when Trump won by 1.2 points. As of about 6:30, the GOP’s share of vote was 1.8 percentage points higher than the Democrats, known as an R+1.8 electorate. More Republicans are voting than Democrats in Florida. When more Republicans vote than Democrats, the Republican has won. Bottom line: when more Democrats vote than Republicans, the Democrat has won Florida. He would be the 1st top-of-the-ticket candidate to carry the state even though his party had a lower share of ballots cast than the opponent’s party. If Biden wins FL tonight, it will be unique. In the Eighth, Dan Webster, a former majority leader in the State Senate, prevailed over a first-term Democrat, Alan Grayson, who had earned praise from progressives for his stand on health care but whose contentious style of campaigning backfired.Polls are now closed in the Eastern Time Zone of FL, they'll be open for another hour in Central. Republicans picked up four House seats, defeating Democratic incumbents in the Second Congressional District, in the panhandle in the 22nd, along the coast north of Miami and in the Eighth and the 24th, both in the central part of the state. Wealthier voters also tended to choose Mr. Scott got more support from whites, especially white men. Scott, with just under half of those who voted for him saying they did so with reservations, according to the exit surveys.īut Mr. Live election results and maps for Florida, including the race for President, Congress and statewide ballot measures. The attacks appeared to do more damage to Mr. The negative campaigning had an impact, according to exit polls: among each candidate’s supporters, roughly 20 percent said they voted for their candidate because they disliked the other. Sink, the state’s chief financial officer and a former bank executive, was marked by attacks on character by both sides. Produced by Michael Andre, Camille Baker, Neil Berg, Michael Beswetherick, Matthew Bloch, Irineo Cabreros, Nate Cohn. In a contest that was much closer and not settled until Wednesday morning, Rick Scott, a Republican, was elected governor over his Democratic opponent, Alex Sink. Source: Election results and race calls are from The Associated Press. Rubio ran well among most demographic groups, including wealthy voters, men and Hispanics. Rubio also did much better than his opponents among the 6 in 10 respondents who said the Tea Party was not a factor in their vote. Rubio was also a favorite of the Tea Party, and received four of every five votes cast by the roughly 40 percent of respondents who said they were Tea Party supporters. Among the 6 in 10 poll respondents who said the country was on the wrong track, nearly three-quarters supported him.

Rubio’s economic themes resonated well with voters. Meek, a Democrat.Įxit polls suggested that Mr. Rubio, a former speaker of the Florida House who before this election season had not been well known outside South Florida, defeated a popular governor, Charlie Crist, a former Republican who ran as an independent, and Kendrick B. With a message of fiscal restraint packaged in a fiery campaign style, Marco Rubio, a Republican, easily won the three-way race for Senate.

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